Storm Prediction Center Apr 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

   SPC AC 061902

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme
   southern Florida.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and
   Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern
   CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will
   move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper
   ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive,
   low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and
   High Plains. 

   ...Far southern FL...
   A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf
   across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered
   thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold
   front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal
   levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these
   reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. 

   The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This
   may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not
   strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a
   cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the
   Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential.

   ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        

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