Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 407

   Mesoscale Discussion 0407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

   Areas affected...northeast AR...wrn TN...adjacent swrn KY

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 119...120...

   Valid 050711Z - 050915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 119, 120 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for additional tornadoes and locally damaging wind
   gusts may persist into the 4-5 AM CDT time frame.  A new WW may be
   issued or Tornado Watch 119 locally extended.

   DISCUSSION...A developing mesoscale convective vortex is now near
   the Jonesboro AR vicinity and migrating northeastward around 40 kt,
   with a narrow vigorous line of convection arcing southward toward
   the Greater Memphis area.  To the south of stalling convective
   outflow, near the lower/mid-tropospheric vorticity center
   east-northeastward toward areas near/north of Hopkinsville and
   Bowling Green, one notable supercell has evolved within the
   convective line and may have recently produced a tornado to the
   west-northwest of Memphis.

   Along and south of the stalled outflow, there appears a narrowing
   corridor of modest potential boundary-layer instability to main a
   continuing risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts
   another several hours, in the presence of strong low-level and
   deep-layer shear.

   ..Kerr.. 04/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35969029 36488900 36778690 35508870 35238963 35109030
               35589021 35969029 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN