Storm Prediction Center Apr 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 051703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   ALABAMA AND INTO PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
   across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
   also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Sunday, a positive-tilt trough will move slowly east out of the
   southern Plains and across the lower to mid MS Valley, with
   gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft across the Gulf Coast
   states. A weak surface low will move out of MS and across northern
   AL during the day, then northeastward across the western Carolinas
   overnight. A rain-reinforced front will extend south from the low,
   from northern AL into eastern MS and LA, with another boundary
   extending from TN into VA. A very moist air mass will exist across
   the warm sector, with moderate shear supporting scattered severe
   storms.

   ...Eastern MS and LA...AL...
   A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early
   on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
   Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively
   warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around
   50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line,
   with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree
   of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly
   better corridor of tornado threat could materialize.

   ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        

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