Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 368

   Mesoscale Discussion 0368
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0946 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Ohio

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

   Valid 030246Z - 030415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized MCS capable of producing swaths of severe
   wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will continue tracking eastward
   across eastern Indiana into western Ohio.

   DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented MCS (with embedded supercells) is
   tracking eastward across eastern IN into western OH -- with the
   northern portion of the line moving at 60 kt and southern part at 45
   kt. This system has a history of producing destructive wind gusts
   and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of these storms, the ILN VWP is
   sampling an 80-kt low-level jet (at 2 km AGL), which combined with
   moist/unstable inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- higher farther
   south), should support its maintenance with eastward extent
   (especially the southern portion of the line where instability is
   greater). The primary concern with this activity continues to be
   swaths of severe wind gusts (generally 70-80 mph) and embedded
   tornadoes, given around 60 kt of 0-1 km shear/550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
   (per ILN VWP). With a west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vector,
   any NNW/SSE-oriented portions of the line will pose the greatest
   risk of severe wind and tornadoes.

   ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39348417 39008469 38868540 38778609 38868637 39098637
               40218541 40468526 40858503 40938436 40868401 40708367
               40228364 39818379 39348417 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN