Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 358

   Mesoscale Discussion 0358
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022018Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe
   risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch
   is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly
   with any discrete storms.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been
   noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to
   2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear
   will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The
   KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the
   low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That
   being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening
   where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track
   northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for
   parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas.

   Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been
   anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the
   primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there
   may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud
   cover has been present most of today and hindered overall
   destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur
   in northeast Texas given these factors.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513
               34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238
               31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN