Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 353

   Mesoscale Discussion 0353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas into ArkLaTex

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021533Z - 021730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including very-large hail and a strong
   tornado or two, are possible this afternoon.
   Convective/observational trends will continue to be monitored for a
   possible watch this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently initiated along a pre-frontal
   confluence zone in Northeast Texas. Based on the observed 12Z
   Shreveport, LA sounding as well as the character of boundary layer
   clouds on visible satellite, there is still inhibition left to
   overcome this morning. That said, objective mesoanalysis shows more
   minimal amounts of MLCIN remaining right along the confluence zone.
   Activity may initially struggle to intensify until greater surface
   heating occurs through the day. Strong effective shear is in place,
   though it is largely parallel to confluence zone and cold front that
   lags to the northwest. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and steep mid-level
   lapse rates will eventually support rapid storm intensification.
   Large/very-large hail and severe gusts would be possible. The
   tornado threat will depend on the overall storm mode, which could
   lean linear, but strong low-level shear apparent on regional VAD
   data and a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) would
   favor potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Timing
   of storm intensification is uncertain given the inhibition and
   overall lack of a stronger/focused forcing mechanism.
   Convective/observational trends will be monitored for a possible
   watch this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32249665 32439669 32859661 33189648 33649578 34049486
               33969378 33519328 32919351 32179531 32039651 32249665 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN