Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 340

   Mesoscale Discussion 0340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and extreme northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

   Valid 012356Z - 020200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

   SUMMARY...Splitting supercells initially with a risk of very large
   hail and severe gusts. The tornado risk will gradually increase with
   time and northeastward extent.

   DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are evolving ahead of the dryline
   along the Red River in southwest OK and extreme northwest TX. These
   storms are in an environment characterized by 50 kt of 0-6 km shear
   with a mostly straight hodograph (per FDR VWP data). Given weak
   large-scale forcing for ascent, this will continue to promote
   discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of very
   large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, a strengthening
   low-level jet will support enlarging clockwise-turning low-level
   hodographs (effective SRH upwards of 600-700 m2/s2). This will favor
   a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with an increasing
   risk of tornadoes. With lower 60s F dewpoints in place, and the
   expectation for a discrete/semi-discrete mode, a strong tornado will
   be possible.

   ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34189899 35019865 35209835 35229795 35189744 34939712
               34639709 34299739 33969812 33859870 33999894 34189899 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN