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| Mesoscale Discussion 340 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and extreme northwest Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 91... Valid 012356Z - 020200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues. SUMMARY...Splitting supercells initially with a risk of very large hail and severe gusts. The tornado risk will gradually increase with time and northeastward extent. DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are evolving ahead of the dryline along the Red River in southwest OK and extreme northwest TX. These storms are in an environment characterized by 50 kt of 0-6 km shear with a mostly straight hodograph (per FDR VWP data). Given weak large-scale forcing for ascent, this will continue to promote discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of very large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will support enlarging clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (effective SRH upwards of 600-700 m2/s2). This will favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with an increasing risk of tornadoes. With lower 60s F dewpoints in place, and the expectation for a discrete/semi-discrete mode, a strong tornado will be possible. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34189899 35019865 35209835 35229795 35189744 34939712 34639709 34299739 33969812 33859870 33999894 34189899 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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