Storm Prediction Center Apr 1, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 010857
   SPC AC 010857

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi
   stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and
   eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast
   period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression
   of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some
   key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate
   potential in the coming days.

   ...Day4/Friday...
   The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually
   deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern
   Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the
   southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South
   and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
   along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
   Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
   within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
   buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to
   multiple preceding days of convective potential.

   ...Day5/Saturday...
   The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern
   Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday.
   Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the
   warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the
   ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level
   flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and
   Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually
   intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential
   ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to
   ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible
   from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into
   Saturday night.

   ...Day6-8...
   The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper
   trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some
   severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with
   seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences
   on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of
   proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond
   Day 5.

   ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

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