Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 323

   Mesoscale Discussion 0323
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...northeast MS into north-central AL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...

   Valid 311104Z - 311230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will spread east into portions of
   northern/north-central AL this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS/bowing line of convection near the northeast MS
   state line will continue to shift east into portions of
   northern/north-central AL this morning. Radar trends from KGWX
   showed a few mesovortices/areas of rotation as this line approached
   the radar. This indicates potential for locally enhanced damaging
   gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Regional VWP data shows modestly
   enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kt on
   the nose of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. This may be
   sufficient for a brief tornado, though the predominant risk is
   expected to remain damaging gusts as the line of convection
   continues east through the morning hours.

   ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34308872 34368844 34228729 33998665 33718651 33388664
               33178712 33088750 33088831 33118873 33198931 33698900
               34308872 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN