Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 320

   Mesoscale Discussion 0320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern Kentucky and portions of West Virginia
   into far western Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...

   Valid 310617Z - 310745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe potential should gradually decrease with eastward
   extent the next few hours. Isolated strong gusts continue to be
   possible in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...The line of convection extending from southwest WV into
   eastern KY, especially the southern extent over eastern KY,
   continues to be well organized amid strong deep-layer southwesterly
   flow. Instability will weaken with time and eastward extent, and
   convection should gradually wane in intensity as storms approach the
   WV/VA border vicinity. Further south, stronger bowing/QLCS
   convection will continue to move across eastern KY toward far
   western VA/southern WV. This activity may continue to produce severe
   gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado over the next 1-2 hours. However,
   similar to further north, downstream instability will diminish and
   stronger large-scale ascent will continue to lift northeast away
   from the region. As such, a gradual weakening trend is expected. A
   small local watch extension may be needed, but otherwise, downstream
   watch issuance appears unlikely.

   ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   39188130 38998057 38478042 37728094 36628191 36608297
               36638437 37028410 38178278 39188130 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN