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Mesoscale Discussion 309 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 302308Z - 310145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of east Texas early this evening. Isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat will be possible. New weather watch issuance may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving through north-central Texas, with a very moist airmass located ahead of the front over much of east Texas. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. In addition, the latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into central Texas. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will increase across east Texas, aiding convective initiation. It appears that initiation will take place over the next hour. RAP forecast soundings early this evening in east Texas have 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercell development. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Supercells may also produce severe gusts, and be accompanied by an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30039488 30019527 30029549 30129597 30439625 30959635 31779628 32159608 32399569 32499496 32379431 32069393 31669377 31129360 30739366 30359388 30139429 30039488 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN |
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