Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 295

   Mesoscale Discussion 0295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0947 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas/Brazos Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301447Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe storms may occur and
   occasionally produce large hail this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection within central Texas has
   occasionally pulsed in intensity over the last hour or so. This
   activity, likely elevated, is driven by weak low-level warm
   advection. Given the very steep  mid-level lapse rates (observed in
   this mornings regional sounding data) and modest influence from a
   shortwave trough to the north, storms that can persist may produce
   large hail. However, low-level warm advection is expected to weaken
   over the next few hours and the coverage of storms is not expected
   to be more than isolated. Additional stronger storms appear more
   probable later in the afternoon. A watch is not currently
   anticipated for this early day activity.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30559812 30839848 31139856 31399840 31599784 31629658
               31329568 30639558 30299613 30559812 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN