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| Mesoscale Discussion 291 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Far Southeast Kansas...Far Northwest Arkansas...Western Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 300431Z - 300630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours across eastern Oklahoma, and may spread northeastward into parts of southeastern Kansas, western Missouri and far northwestern Arkansas. Weather watch issuance remains possible downstream from WW 68. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a developing MCS over much of central and northern Oklahoma. The large cluster of strong to severe storms is located near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This cluster is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough in the southern Plains, evident on water vapor imagery. A potential for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado, will likely continue with the stronger storms within this large cluster as it moves northeastward across eastern Oklahoma late this evening. The storms are forecast to move into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri after midnight, where a severe threat will be possible. The severe threat should become more isolated later tonight, as the storms interact with weaker instability. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38079492 37099604 36619665 36219703 35589713 34939693 34649672 34489637 34619552 35609425 36849327 37639282 38279288 38689343 38789390 38659428 38079492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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