Mar 17, 2025 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170737

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
   INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday
   afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread
   critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains.

   Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough
   off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over
   the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late
   Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated
   across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure
   values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well
   below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for
   mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a
   wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward
   advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low
   across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late
   afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the
   dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. 

   The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold
   front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements
   off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of
   sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the
   Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX
   Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of
   the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between
   50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and
   critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an
   Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. 

   Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of
   the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely
   critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far
   southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on
   drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits
   confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions
   may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far
   east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of
   moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude
   of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25
   mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next
   24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range
   guidance.

   ..Moore.. 03/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)