Storm Prediction Center Mar 16, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook






















Mar 16, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 16 07:26:59 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250316 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20250316 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

   SPC AC 160726

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
   possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday
   from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri.

   ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
   At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in
   place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves
   quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies.
   During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place
   ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into
   the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are
   forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow
   corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and
   southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through
   the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm
   development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to
   09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa
   have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with
   elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area
   is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear
   of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km.
   This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with
   rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The
   majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period,
   between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday.

   ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

        

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