Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 218

   Mesoscale Discussion 0218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

   Valid 160419Z - 160615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

   SUMMARY...Two long-track supercells across eastern/southeastern AL
   will pose a risk for significant tornadoes downstream into far
   western GA over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Two leading supercells across eastern and southeastern
   AL have both recently produced tornadoes based on KEOX and KMXX
   velocity and dual pol data. Surface observations just ahead of these
   cells show 30-40 mph low-level winds are advecting high-quality
   moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) ahead of the storms. This suggests that
   although these cells are approaching the eastern edge of the
   effective warm sector, they will likely remain in a favorable
   thermodynamic environment for the next 1-2 hours. Additionally,
   regional VWPs continue to sample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 500
   m2/s2, which is supporting STP values on the order of 2-4 in
   proximity to the storms/within the inflow region. Based on this
   environment and observed rotational velocities (50-60 knots at
   times), these cells will continue to be capable of producing
   significant (EF-2+) tornadoes in the short term.

   ..Moore.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31328599 31348619 31498626 32448576 32798582 33058591
               33338577 33478531 33438489 33088466 32568462 32188472
               31858498 31568533 31438562 31328599