Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 213

   Mesoscale Discussion 0213
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...southern Mississippi into central and southern
   Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

   Valid 152318Z - 160215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

   SUMMARY...The environment remains quite favorable for strong
   tornadoes, but will depend on storm mode going into the evening and
   early morning hours.

   DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of eastern MS have transitioned
   into more of a small MCS this evening, from west-central AL into
   parts of eastern MS. Farther south, more discrete cell mode was
   noted across far southern MS to the LA border.

   While storm mode is currently a bit disorganized, shear, moisture
   and instability all remain favorable for conditionally strong
   tornadoes at any point this evening and through early morning. In
   addition, dewpoints and thus instability will also increase across
   the remainder of eastern AL and toward GA late tonight as the
   low-level jet persists. It is possible that reorganization may take
   place later this evening as we transition out of the daytime/diurnal
   regime. Any robust, discrete cells will have a high conditional risk
   of being tornadic supercells. Any linear structures may still
   produce tornadoes and swaths of damaging wind as well as effective
   SRH remains at or above 500 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30318979 30628951 31458910 31998846 32308814 32658781
               32878771 33188745 33408693 33428620 33228596 32858582
               32268597 31668640 31168676 30288732 30068936 30318979