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| Mesoscale Discussion 180 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Central Arkansas into far south-central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 32... Valid 150143Z - 150345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple supercells across central/north-central AR will pose an increasing tornado threat as they migrate eastward through the next couple of hours, including the potential for a significant tornado. DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of northwest AR are becoming increasingly organized with several well-defined mid-level mesocyclones evident in KLZK and KSGF velocity imagery. These storms are moving into an environment characterized by STP values on the order of 3-5, which is largely being driven by a corridor of warm air advection between 925-850 mb over north-central AR. This diffuse warm frontal zone is supporting veering winds through the lowest 2 km with a 0-1 km SRH value of 300 m2/s2 sampled by the 00z LZK sounding and around 450 m2/s2 recently sampled by the KLZK VWP. This environment is typically supportive of robust, long-lived supercells with an attendant threat for tornadoes, including significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. The aforementioned convective trends suggest that cells are beginning to realize this environment and that the downstream tornado threat is likely increasing across central to north-central AR. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34949341 35369323 35919296 36399258 36599234 36819141 36799115 36629090 36399083 36139100 35809120 35109178 34769215 34699252 34699289 34719318 34799340 34949341 |
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