Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Areas affected...parts of northwestern and north central Arkansas
into central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142040Z - 142245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Further intensification of a broken squall line with
embedded supercells appears likely into the 6-7 PM CDT time frame,
accompanied by increasing risk for very strong, damaging surface
gusts and/or a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Surface dew points have mixed into the 30s F across
much of central Missouri, between the I-44 and I-70 corridors.
However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that the nose of a plume
of precipitable water on the order of .75-1.00+ inches is now nosing
across central Arkansas toward the southern Missouri state border
vicinity, where a notable recent increase in surface dew points is
underway. This includes surface dew points in the lower/mid 50s F,
which Rapid Refresh forecast soundings have been indicating rapidly
return northward, just ahead of the approaching squall line into
early evening.
Although the same forecast soundings suggest that this may tend to
coincide with the transition to a more linear low-level hodograph,
low-level shear is forecast to remain strong to extreme beneath 850
flow strengthening to 50+ kt. This environment may still become
increasingly conducive to supercells with potential to produce
tornadoes and/or very strong, damaging gusts, in addition to large
hail.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 39179241 38549186 37709199 35589331 35219431 37549364
38329340 39129293 39179241
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards