Storm Prediction Center Mar 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
narcolepticnerdMarch 14, 20250 comments
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 14, 2025
Updated: Fri Mar 14 09:00:03 UTC 2025
D4
Mon, Mar 17, 2025 – Tue, Mar 18, 2025
D7
Thu, Mar 20, 2025 – Fri, Mar 21, 2025
D5
Tue, Mar 18, 2025 – Wed, Mar 19, 2025
D8
Fri, Mar 21, 2025 – Sat, Mar 22, 2025
D6
Wed, Mar 19, 2025 – Thu, Mar 20, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140858
SPC AC 140858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the
continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across
the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level
trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central
U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across
the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm
development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern
and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface
dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday
along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central
U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop.
However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will
remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be
isolated and marginal.
...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move
from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western
Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will
be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The
return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant
instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason,
any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be
marginal.
..Broyles.. 03/14/2025
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