Storm Prediction Center Mar 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 14, 2025
Updated: Fri Mar 14 09:00:03 UTC 2025

D4 Mon, Mar 17, 2025 – Tue, Mar 18, 2025 D7 Thu, Mar 20, 2025 – Fri, Mar 21, 2025
D5 Tue, Mar 18, 2025 – Wed, Mar 19, 2025 D8 Fri, Mar 21, 2025 – Sat, Mar 22, 2025
D6 Wed, Mar 19, 2025 – Thu, Mar 20, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day. 

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140858
   SPC AC 140858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
   A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the
   continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across
   the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level
   trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central
   U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across
   the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm
   development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern
   and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface
   dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday
   along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central
   U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop.
   However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will
   remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be
   isolated and marginal.

   ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
   From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move
   from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western
   Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will
   be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The
   return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant
   instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason,
   any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be
   marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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