Storm Prediction Center Mar 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook






















Mar 14, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 14 12:20:31 UTC 2025 (Print Version | 20250314 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20250314 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

   SPC AC 141220

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0720 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID
   SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the
   Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including
   portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid South.  Tornadoes, several
   of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to
   100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be
   possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor satellite imagery shows a powerful negatively tilted mid
   to upper-level shortwave trough over the Four Corners into the
   southern High Plains.  A very intense 500-mb speed max in excess of
   100+ kt will round the base of the trough and quickly move
   northeastward across OK this afternoon and near Lake Michigan late
   tonight.  The associated 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order
   of 240-270m) will overspread portions of the central U.S. as a deep
   cyclone develops northeast from the central High Plains into the
   Upper Midwest.  In the low levels, a dryline will surge across the
   central Plains eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the
   Ozarks.  

   Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone and
   initial storms will likely develop by early afternoon (18-20z) from
   eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO.  Storms will
   quickly grow upscale into a fast northeastward-moving band of storms
   posing a risk for all hazards as this activity moves into IA and
   towards the MO/IA/IL border region.  Intense thunderstorm
   straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are
   possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it
   matures and moves across the Mid MS Valley and eventually into the
   southwestern Great Lakes tonight.  Have made some adjustments for
   higher wind/tornado probabilities over northern IL eastward into the
   Michiana region late tonight.  

   Additional severe storms will develop southeast along the wind shift
   into MO and within the northern periphery of richer low-level
   moisture from southeast MO southward into eastern AR and into
   northern MS/western TN.  Stronger high-level flow over the Mid South
   will promote more discrete supercell structures.  Recent model
   guidance indicates at least widely scattered storms developing
   towards the evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. 
   Forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of
   large to very large hail and potentially a few strong tornadoes this
   evening and perhaps continuing into the late evening.  Forcing for
   ascent will be more nebulous farther south into the Gulf coastal
   plain late.  However, model guidance continues to suggest at least
   isolated supercell development may occur within an increasingly rich
   and weakly capped boundary layer overnight.  Have likewise extended
   10-percent significant tornado probabilities farther south into
   southern MS to account for this forecast scenario.  Moderate
   buoyancy and enlarged hodographs will support a supercell tornado
   risk with this activity with it perhaps continuing into early
   Saturday morning.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/14/2025

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