Storm Prediction Center Mar 14, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 140600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf
   Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
   significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on
   Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana,
   Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and
   scattered large hail are likely.

   ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on
   Saturday...
   ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern
   Appalachians/Georgia...
   At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will
   translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough
   moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and
   unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid
   Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will
   contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of
   the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
   approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late
   morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and
   western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly
   due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer
   shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat
   are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the
   afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley.

   The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move
   across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to
   late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating.
   Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central
   Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
   shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
   near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500
   m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms,
   with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several
   tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by
   mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple
   long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado
   threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening,
   with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle
   Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into
   a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind
   gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected
   to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern
   Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue
   into the overnight.

   ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
   A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western
   Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves
   into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system,
   southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of
   rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward
   into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely
   range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a
   cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio
   valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage,
   isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the
   wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass
   over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected
   by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the
   exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and
   lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be
   possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong
   deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes,
   wind damage and hail.

   ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        

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