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Mar 14, 2025 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook | |||||||||||||
Updated: Fri Mar 14 06:08:02 UTC 2025 (Print Version | |
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 140606 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1) |
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