Mar 14, 2025 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140606

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN
   KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

   ...Synopsis...
   A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains
   as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX
   Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast
   KS. 

   ...Southern Plains...
   Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains
   with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour
   observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High
   Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already
   observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust
   low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds
   are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the
   surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak
   overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon.
   Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the
   development of critical to extremely critical fire weather
   conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian
   Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to
   the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east
   into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and
   southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic
   guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under
   the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph
   possible along/off the Caprock in western TX.

   00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS
   sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%.
   Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full
   insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will
   promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions
   hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible -
   especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel
   guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area
   with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the
   KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently
   been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically
   low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern
   Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather
   threat. 

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening
   lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast
   OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water
   content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial
   storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and
   support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of
   fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts
   are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire
   weather conditions. 

   ...Midwest...
   Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through
   the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite
   increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote
   RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs
   are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal
   rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a
   wind-driven threat.

   ..Moore.. 03/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)