Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 13, 2025

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132131

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern
   Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead
   to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across
   portions of the Southern Plains.

   ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains...
   A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern
   Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not
   expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer
   should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the
   surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the
   Edwards Plateau. 

   In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the
   central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough
   with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support
   strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of
   15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible
   across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and
   the northeast TX Panhandle.

   ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
   Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow
   strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching
   mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather
   conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst
   winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak
   overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the
   surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across
   eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant
   concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical
   fire weather conditions.

   ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains...
   Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the
   southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for
   some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern
   continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the
   southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the
   EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite
   these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee
   troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities.

   ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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