Hurricane Milton continues its unprecedented rapid intensification, drawing significant attention and concern from meteorologists and coastal residents alike. As of 10:00 AM CDT, Milton has developed a well-defined eye, indicative of its growing strength as observed through satellite images and Mexican radar at Sabancuy. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a peak wind speed of 146 knots, with pressure dropping to approximately 933 mb, a remarkable 22 mb decrease over just four hours. Milton’s current wind speed is estimated at 135 knots, marking an 80-knot increase within the last 24 hours, making it one of the fastest intensifying hurricanes on record, only surpassed by Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007.
Current Movement and Forecast Path
Milton is moving east-southeastward at approximately 8 knots. Forecast models predict an imminent eastward turn as the frontal low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico moves away. The trajectory suggests that Milton may affect the northern Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane-force winds. A mid-level trough forming in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Milton east-northeastward at an accelerated speed. Adjustments to the forecast track have been made, shifting slightly north, aligning with a consensus from the latest GFS, ECMWF, and regional hurricane models. The projected path is now closer to model fields rather than model trackers which previously indicated a more southern route.
Intensity and Environmental Factors
Milton is anticipated to reach Category 5 status later today due to light wind shear and warm ocean waters. However, subsequent eyewall replacement cycles may lead to a gradual weakening while the hurricane increases in size. After 36 hours, interaction with a less favorable environment characterized by strong shear and dry air is expected to weaken Milton before it reaches the Florida Gulf coast. Nevertheless, Milton is predicted to remain a formidable hurricane at landfall, posing significant threats along the coast and inland areas. Post-landfall, Milton is expected to weaken further and begin transitioning into an extratropical system by 96 hours.
Key Messages:
Yucatan Peninsula: Expect damaging hurricane-force winds across the northern coast with a life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves.
Florida Peninsula: Increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are active for portions of the west coast of Florida. Residents should heed local officials’ advice and evacuate if instructed.
Rainfall and Flooding: Heavy rainfall is expected in Florida ahead of Milton, with more intense rains predicted for Tuesday through Wednesday night. This poses risks of flash flooding, urban flooding, and moderate to major river flooding.
Forecast Positions and Maximum Winds:
07/1500Z: Position 21.7N 91.7W, Wind 135 KT (155 MPH)
08/0000Z: Position 21.5N 90.4W, Wind 145 KT (165 MPH)
08/1200Z: Position 22.2N 88.3W, Wind 140 KT (160 MPH)
09/0000Z: Position 23.6N 86.4W, Wind 135 KT (155 MPH)
09/1200Z: Position 25.5N 84.7W, Wind 125 KT (145 MPH)
10/0000Z: Position 27.7N 82.8W, Wind 110 KT (125 MPH)
10/1200Z: Position 29.2N 80.1W, Wind 80 KT (90 MPH)
11/1200Z: Position 30.8N 71.0W, Wind 55 KT (65 MPH) – Post-Tropical/Extratropical
12/1200Z: Position 31.0N 66.0W, Wind 45 KT (50 MPH) – Post-Tropical/Extratropical
Conclusion
As Hurricane Milton continues to escalate in intensity, residents in the affected areas are urged to stay informed and prepared. Follow the latest advisories from local authorities and prioritize safety and evacuation measures as necessary.
Forecaster: Blake
Category: Milton