BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06, 2024
Tropical Storm Milton is currently moving slowly but is anticipated to strengthen rapidly. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts for parts of the Florida West Coast.
Current Information:
Location: Approximately 365 miles (585 km) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 855 miles (1375 km) west-southwest of Tampa, Florida.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph (75 km/h).
Movement: North-northeast at 4 mph (6 km/h).
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Watches and Warnings:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the area from Celestun to Cancun. A Tropical Storm Watch indicates that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should closely monitor the storm’s progress. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches may be issued for parts of Florida by late Sunday.
Forecast Discussion:
At 100 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Milton was near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 95.1 West. The storm is projected to move east-northeastward over the next couple of days and then accelerate northeastward. Milton is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The storm is anticipated to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and potentially become a major hurricane while traversing the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
Hazards Affecting Land:
Rainfall: Expect rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals of up to 12 inches across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and areal flooding, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Additionally, the system could produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
Surf: Swells generated by the storm will start affecting the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s coast today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For detailed rainfall forecasts associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please refer to the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
Next Advisory:
The next complete advisory will be issued at 400 AM CDT.
Forecaster: Beven
Please remain informed by monitoring local weather forecasts and updates from your national meteorological service.